Actuarial Studies: Estimated impact of MACRA (2015)

Estimated Financial Effects of the Medicare Access and CHIP Reauthorization Act
of 2015 (H.R. 2)

On March 26, 2015, the House passed the Medicare Access and CHIP Reauthorization Act of 
2015 (H.R. 2). This bill includes a provision to replace the Sustainable Growth Rate (SGR) 
formula used by Medicare to pay physicians with new systems for establishing annual payment 
rate updates for physicians’ services. In addition, it would temporarily extend the Children’s 
Health Insurance Program (CHIP) and increase premiums for Part B and Part D of Medicare for 
beneficiaries with income above certain levels. H.R. 2 would also make numerous other changes 
to Medicare and Medicaid.

This memorandum summarizes the Office of the Actuary’s estimates of the short-range and 
long-range financial effects of H.R.2, describes the bill’s major provisions, and discusses the 
implications and limitations of the estimates.

The last two sentences of the 3rd full paragraph on page 5 that currently reads: 
"Over the 75-year period, the actuarial deficit would be reduced from the current-law estimate of 0.87 percent of taxable payroll to 0.78 percent under H.R. 2. Similarly, the present value of future Part A benefits would decrease by $387 billion-from $20.365 trillion to $19.978 trillion."

Should read as follows: 
"Over the 75-year period, the actuarial deficit would be reduced from the current-law estimate of 0.87 percent of taxable payroll to 0.84 percent under H.R. 2. Similarly, the present value of future Part A benefits would decrease by $136 billion-from $20.365 trillion to $20.229 trillion."

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